The renewables paradox: clean growth, dirty outcomes

Darren Lewis | 25/6/2025

Renewable energy is growing at an extraordinary pace. Solar and wind are breaking records, governments are setting ambitious targets, and clean technology is scaling like never before. But beneath the headlines lies a troubling truth: global carbon emissions are still rising. If clean energy is expanding so rapidly, why are we not seeing a meaningful decline in emissions? The answer is more complex than it seems, and it highlights the urgent need to rethink how we approach the energy transition.

The renewables paradox

Despite record-breaking growth in wind and solar, global energy-related CO₂ emissions continue to rise. In 2022, renewables grew by 14% year-on-year, yet emissions still increased by 0.8%. This is not a minor issue. It reveals a deeper problem within the energy system.

Electrification does not equal decarbonisation

The world is electrifying quickly. We are seeing more electric cars, heat pumps, and data centres powered by electricity. However, much of this electricity is still generated from fossil fuels. Global electricity demand rose by 30% between 2013 and 2023, which outpaced the growth in overall energy use. Only about 40% of that extra demand has been met by clean sources. The rest is still powered by coal, oil, and gas.

The result is that renewables are not yet replacing fossil fuels. They are simply being added to the mix while consumption continues to grow.

Scale and incentives must align

While renewable energy is expanding rapidly in the electricity sector, fossil fuels still supply more than 80% of total energy. In some regions, renewables displace nuclear or gas rather than coal. In others, they lead to increased overall consumption.

Unless renewables start to cut into the fossil fuel share, they cannot bring emissions down.

What needs to change

Increasing renewable capacity is not enough on its own. The energy system needs coordinated action on several fronts:

1. Clean up the grid at its core

• Replace coal and gas plants with renewables or nuclear

• Shut down high-emitting thermal plants

2. Fix the economics

• Apply carbon pricing or cap and trade to make fossil fuel use less attractive

• Create stable policy frameworks so investors can back long-term clean energy projects

3. Target demand smartly

• Focus electrification on areas that reduce fossil use rather than add new demand

• Improve energy efficiency across buildings, transport, and industry

4. Invest in clean flexibility

• Build battery storage, interconnectors, and flexible clean power

• Support green hydrogen, carbon capture, and other scalable solutions that truly lower emissions

What the future could look like

Renewables are vital, but they must be part of a wider shift. This includes:

• Removing fossil fuel infrastructure

• Reshaping the way demand is managed

• Linking energy policy with industry and transport reforms

If we continue to add renewables without removing fossil fuels, we will not make the progress we need. Lewis is right to highlight this gap. It is a reminder that the energy transition is not just about what we build. It is also about what we shut down, what we prioritise, and how we bring it all together.